33 Million Brazilians Stay Home Ahead of Final Presidential Vote

Thirty-three million Brazilians skipped the first round of voting this month, the highest number of abstentions since 1998. This massive non-participation sets the stage for the presidential runoff scheduled for Sunday, where incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face Flávio Bolsonaro. The contest is defined by a rapid economic shift that has altered the political base of both candidates.

The change is visible in Osasco, a municipality near São Paulo that supported Lula in 2022 but shifted its support to Bolsonaro in the recent first round. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader, described the area’s transformation as severe deindustrialisation. He noted that metal, chemical, and textile factories have vanished, replaced by five new shopping malls and delivery app headquarters. Almazan stated that the traditional union movement supporting Lula is now stuck in the Middle Ages.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both presidential candidates, characterized Brazil’s economic trajectory as industrialising late and deindustrialising early. He described Lula as a victim of his own success, noting that while unemployment hit a record low and the country left the UN Hunger Map, inflation and household debt have eroded voter sentiment. Many workers now function as drivers or small traders, a trend Almazan called Uber-isation, prioritising flexibility over the collective benefits Lula traditionally provides.

Voter sentiment reflects this economic anxiety. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant and former Lula supporter, blamed the government’s mismanagement for high taxes. Tairine, a hot dog seller, said she is now voting for Bolsonaro because she sees no change since Lula’s return. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, cited the hope of change as her reason for switching sides. Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending and taxes while retaining key welfare programs, though he denies ongoing corruption accusations.

Lula’s campaign is countering the shift with mass mobilization. His team reported that a rally in São Paulo drew approximately one million participants, a scene captured in widely shared aerial footage. The 80-year-old president also engaged on social media to refute age-related criticisms, referring to himself as the king of selfies. Despite the challenges, Lula retains strong support in poorer areas. In Maré, a large favela in Rio de Janeiro, he won the first round despite above-average abstention.

Voters in these communities cite specific policy benefits for their support. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under £300 a month, praised the minimum wage increase and free essential medicines. She expressed doubt about Bolsonaro’s plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, fearing police raids similar to those that killed more than 130 people in Rio last year. Andreza Dionísio, a resident, attributed low turnout to last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness about the future.

Religious institutions are also influencing the electorate. About a quarter of Brazilians now attend evangelical churches, which provide services ranging from childcare to employment advice. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is currently under investigation for allegedly obstructing his father’s coup trial, said Flávio Bolsonaro aligns with church values regarding family and abortion. The first round results appear to function more as a rejection of Lula than an active endorsement of his rival.