Commanders vs. Giants odds and picks: Best bets, player props for NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season opens with an NFC East meeting under the lights, as the New York Giants host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. DraftKings Sportsbook lists New York as a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under for total points set at 40.5 in a matchup that could reshape the division race.

J.J. McCarthy makes his third start for the Giants since being traded from the Minnesota Vikings, who are on their third quarterback since dealing him away. The returns so far have been mixed. McCarthy looked like a future franchise quarterback against the Houston Texans and far less convincing against the Philadelphia Eagles, although both games ended in New York victories.

His counterpart, Jayden Daniels, is far more established as a franchise quarterback, but Washington's season is on the brink at 2-5-1. These teams tied in sloppy fashion in their previous meeting, a game the Commanders nearly won in overtime. Had Washington finished the job then, this rematch would carry even more weight.

The featured best bet is Washington +2.5, a number that has begun to drop across most of the market. The preview stops short of saying the wrong team is favored, crediting the Giants as a well-coached club that has earned first place in the division, but questions the case for backing McCarthy as a favorite in prime time. Washington has had some horrendous moments this season but has also been hurt by a difficult schedule, and the Commanders are reasonably healthy even though New York's injury report looks favorable. The pick leans on Commanders coach Dan Quinn to scheme against the erratic McCarthy and on Daniels and his weapons to get it done on offense, with Washington projected to win outright.

Among player props, the preview likes Malik Nabers to go over 67.5 receiving yards at -112. His total is discounted because McCarthy is the one throwing him the ball, yet Nabers has drawn 17 targets over the past two games and comfortably cleared this number against a talented Houston secondary.

Another favored prop is Daniels going over 37.5 rushing yards at -113. He faces what amounts to a must-win game against a division rival, he is as healthy as he has been since his injury, and he torched the Giants for 110 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns the last time these teams met.

For anytime touchdowns, Isaiah Likely is the pick at +190. He has performed at close to a top-five tight end level this season, Washington has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends in the league with eight, and Likely has scored five times on nine red-zone targets, catching eight of them.

The longshot selection is Antonio Williams at +410. Williams had a long touchdown against the Giants in the earlier matchup wiped out by a marginal penalty, and while he is not the first option in Washington's offense, his deep-threat speed makes him dangerous if offensive coordinator David Blough decides to take shots or dial up some trickery in what shapes up as a kitchen-sink game for the Commanders.