Mansfield Reports 9,000 Hectares of New Poppy Fields in Balochistan

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan's illicit drugs trade, has identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province based on satellite imagery. The analysis, conducted by the British firm Alcis in an August report, marks a sharp increase in production in a region that has historically been a minor player in the global opium market.

Mansfield, author of 'A State Built On Sand: How Opium Undermined Afghanistan,' stated that the Taliban's 2022 ban on illicit narcotics has not stopped production but has displaced it. He argues that the combination of the ban and instability in the tri-border area has turned the remote borderlands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran into a central hub for opium. Most of the new cultivation in Pakistan is concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah.

Local officials in Balochistan have largely denied the scale of the shift. Islamabad maintains that any crops found have been destroyed, and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has labeled Pakistani production as marginal. However, the UN agency acknowledged that rising eradication figures and a lack of regional data suggest spillover effects from Afghanistan are occurring. The provincial government and the Interior Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

In Killa Abdullah, Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member, claimed that cultivation is rampant and backed by senior military officials and pro-government power brokers who take commissions. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected this, citing a decline in crops after an eradication campaign last year. Yet, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence that these eradication efforts have reduced the total acreage.

Farmers describe a system where bribes are paid to local authorities through intermediaries. One anonymous grower in Killa Abdullah alleged that when media attention rises, officials destroy crops planted on barren land to create the appearance of success. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of the same district, said that drought, flash floods, and insecurity have destroyed traditional fruit farming. He noted that the demand and income for poppies now far exceed those for fruit, making it difficult for farmers to resist the switch.

The expansion is fueled by Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand crossing the border to lease land. Kakar observed that these growers invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Mansfield noted that many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026, a sign that production levels could rise significantly in 2027. The shift represents a move from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in the border regions.

A similar pattern is emerging in Iran, particularly in Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers there, leveraging family ties. Satellite images from 2026 show extensive fields, some equipped with drip irrigation, a costly method that suggests growers planted in late 2025 with little fear of immediate removal. Iranian authorities, preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February, have not destroyed the 2026 crop.

Inside Afghanistan, production is also rebounding despite the ban. Cultivation is concentrated in Badakhshan province, which accounts for roughly half of national output, and in several southwestern provinces. Mansfield stated that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. While crops are often hidden behind compound walls or within wheat fields, a recent Taliban directive barring home searches without a court order may encourage further expansion. Mansfield warned that if farmers interpret this as tolerance, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in output in 2027.