Serbia Faces Toughest Vote Since 2012

Aleksandar Vucic is entering the parliamentary election of October 25 as a candidate for prime minister rather than president.

The former head of state stepped down from his post in late September to avoid a third consecutive term. He previously served as prime minister from 2014 to 2017. His ruling party now faces a unified opposition movement that emerged from recent student protests.

Tensions in the political sphere escalated after RFE/RL's Balkan Service identified roughly 500,000 registered voters missing complete address details. Many records lack street names or house numbers. Investigators also found hundreds of individuals listed at public facilities such as social welfare centers or residential buildings that could not logically house such large groups. These findings mirror irregularities documented during the 2023 vote, when international observers noted the transport of voters from Bosnia-Hercegovina and instances of intimidation.

The timing of the election coincides with the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy on November 1, 2024. A canopy collapse at the city's railway station killed sixteen people. The disaster sparked nationwide demonstrations fueled by allegations of corruption in a construction project led by Chinese businesses. Authorities responded with police force, and a severe incident occurred on March 15, 2025, when demonstrators reported an unlawful sonic weapon. Vucic announced his resignation and the scheduling of early elections following another student protest in June.

Current polls indicate a deeply divided electorate between the ruling coalition and the student movement. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur, described the contest as the first in over a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. The opposition list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, though the movement clarified that this position does not guarantee the premiership if they secure victory.

The government claims it implemented all recommendations from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe following its 2023 mission. An interim report by the OSCE, which deployed 300 observers to Serbia, contradicted this claim. Investigations revealed that the number of eligible voters in Bosnia and Kosovo increased ahead of the vote. Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL they faced pressure to support the ruling party, a practice also documented in several Serbian municipalities.

Allegations of illegal surveillance have further complicated the political climate. A US Senate Foreign Relations Committee statement on October 21 cited reports of monitoring opposition members. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the illegal Pegasus surveillance software were used in 2026. Government officials have denied targeting political rivals despite these findings.

International observers have noted a decline in freedoms over the past decade, a trend confirmed by the latest Freedom House report. Some US lawmakers warned that Moscow may play an active role in the election. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Russia is deploying resources to monitor and disrupt Serbian citizens. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed support for Vucic. Vucic pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The student movement has focused on fighting corruption and has reiterated support for Belgrade's stance of not recognizing Kosovo's independence. Serbia's progress in EU integration has stalled, with no new accession chapter opened since late 2021.