7,000 dead as experts predict third U.S. Iran war round after midterms
Analyst Danny Citrinowicz says renewed fighting is likely once November 3 votes are counted, targeting energy and communications infrastructure.
By Alessia Romano ·
U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 may mark the start of a third round of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, according to a new warning from a former Israeli intelligence official.
Danny Citrinowicz, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies who spent more than 20 years in the Israeli military, told CBC News that a renewed conflict seems almost inevitable. He noted that President Donald Trump has only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf, a view he has held since earlier attacks failed to force a regime change.
The United States and Israel have already fought two separate wars with Iran over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities and ended after 12 days. A second phase started in February following a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz expects the next phase to hit Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also sees a possibility of limited Iranian land attacks on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy. While both sides have paused major strikes, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran has targeted commercial ships, raising global energy costs.
President Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that these attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iran’s demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have tried for weeks to restart talks without success.
The human cost is already high. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation will come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal, noting that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.
The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces voters in the coming days and has spoken of finishing the job. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger, he added, is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack.
