Lebanese Shi'ite Majority Now Favors State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

New survey data indicates a shift in sentiment among Lebanon's Shi'ite population regarding the future of Hezbollah's arsenal. A poll conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon found that 66.4 percent of 800 respondents supported handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state. Conversely, 29.6 percent preferred that Hezbollah retain its weapons. The results were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org in mid-October.

The findings suggest a move away from the traditional view that the militia's arsenal is essential for defense. Kataeb.org, a site associated with a party that opposes Hezbollah, noted that 71.1 percent of respondents said decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the state. Only 5.9 percent believed Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. This stands in contrast to the group's long-held argument that its weapons are a primary shield against Israel.

Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces appears high within this demographic. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents said they trusted the army. A further 51.1 percent identified the military as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security, while only 16.5 percent chose Hezbollah. These figures challenge the group's claim to be the primary security provider for the Shi'ite community.

Despite the support for state control, opinions on Hezbollah's recent performance are mixed. Some 67.4 percent said the group had failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Forty-two point one percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about its leadership and the conflict's consequences. Nevertheless, 59.5 percent still expressed some trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent reporting a great deal of trust. KAN analyst Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status still sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

The data contrasts sharply with a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. In a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited that earlier poll, which found 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. In that May survey, only 7.9 percent supported giving up weapons. The wide gap between the May and September results raises questions about how differences in wording or agenda may have shaped the outcomes.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf states. They stated that the state must replace the services the group provides to erode its influence, which they attributed to social networks, political power, and historical marginalization. Intimidation has also discouraged dissent within the community, they said.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.