House exit polls show economic anxiety and Trump disapproval drove Democratic gains
Voter data indicates that 60% of House race voters disapprove of the president, and negative economic views were the primary factor in party preference.
By Alessia Romano ·
Democrats are projected to retake the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 2020, a shift driven by widespread dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the current economic conditions. ABC News Voter Polls released on November 4, 2026, show that approximately 60% of voters in House races disapprove of Trump's performance. This includes 54% who strongly disapprove, a figure that exceeds the 51% strong disapproval recorded for President George W. Bush in the 2008 exit polls.
The data reveals a stark divide in partisan support based on presidential approval. Voters who strongly disapproved of Trump backed Democratic House candidates by a 90 percentage point margin. Conversely, the 20% of voters who strongly approved of Trump supported Republicans by a 96 point margin. Trump’s personal standing appears to be a central factor in this election, with about two-thirds of House voters stating he has the wrong priorities. A similar share believes he prioritizes personal interests over national ones, and these groups voted for Democrats by margins of 70 and 74 points, respectively.
Economic pain played a decisive role in voter choice. Three-quarters of House voters rated the state of the economy negatively and supported Democrats by 42 points. Among the one-third who rated the economy poorly, the Democratic advantage widened to 72 points. Seven in ten voters said the economic system favors the wealthy over most Americans, and they supported Democrats by a 3-to-1 margin. Additionally, more voters than not said their family financial situation has worsened over the past two years, a group that largely supported the Democratic ticket.
Inflation emerged as a specific pain point for voters. About 80% of House voters reported that inflation caused severe or moderate hardship for their families in the past year. Most of these voters supported Democrats. Furthermore, 63% of House voters attributed higher prices to Trump’s policies rather than external factors. This perception contributed to a broader trend where 44% of voters said they voted to oppose Trump rather than to support a candidate, and 97% of that group chose the Democrats.
Demographic shifts also favored the Democratic Party in this cycle. Democrats improved their share of voters under 30, winning roughly 75% of this group compared to just over 50% in 2024. Independent voters, who make up about a third of the electorate, backed Democrats in House races by a 58% to 38% margin. This stands in contrast to the previous two elections, where independent voters split roughly evenly between the two parties according to Edison Research. The Democratic Party also held a favorability lead over Republicans, with 47% favorable compared to 40%.
