Texas GOP Redistricting Plan Fails to Deliver Promised House Seats
Despite aggressive spending and new boundaries, Democrats held four of five targeted districts in the 2026 midterms.
By Alessia Romano ·
Republican leaders in Texas failed to achieve the primary goal of their 2025 mid-decade redistricting effort, as Democrats retained control of four of the five congressional seats that were radically redrawn. The new maps were designed to shift the state’s delegation in favor of President Trump, aiming for a five-seat gain in the House of Representatives. Instead, the results show that the strategic overhaul missed its mark by a wide margin.
The conflict over the new boundaries began in the summer of 2025. State House Republicans targeted five Democratic strongholds to flip: Districts 28, 34, and 35 in South Texas, District 9 in the Houston area, and District 32 near Dallas. After weeks of political drama and a review by the Supreme Court, the plan was approved for the 2026 midterms. Gov. Greg Abbott declared the effort a "huge win," claiming Texas added more new Republican seats than any other state.
By Wednesday afternoon, the data suggested otherwise. With 99% of the vote counted, the Associated Press called Districts 9, 28, 34, and 35 for Democrats. In District 32, Republican Jace Yarbough led by only three points. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, described the outcome as more of a "dummy-mander" than a gerrymander. He noted that polling a year prior clearly indicated that many Latino voters had regressed away from Donald Trump, with Democrats capturing up to 70% of support in key counties.
Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar in District 28 and Vicente Gonzalez in District 34 held their positions by double-digit margins. The race in District 34, pitting Gonzalez against Republican Eric Flores, became one of the most expensive in the nation. AdImpact reported that more than $44 million was spent on the contest, ranking it as the seventh most costly race in the country.
Andrew Cates, a political attorney and campaign finance expert, argued that massive spending was insufficient to counteract voter frustration with Washington. He stated that Democrats used their resources with a scalpel rather than a shotgun, deploying funds strategically. In District 9, Republican Alex Mealer conceded to Leticia Gutierrez within an hour of the polls closing. Mealer raised millions for her campaign, while Gutierrez worked with roughly $150,000.
Josh Blank, Research Director of the Texas Politics Project, warned against using these results to predict the 2028 cycle. He said the state remains competitive and that Trump's unpopularity loomed over every race. Blank noted that while Democrats currently hold advantages, the long-term outlook depends on how they use their power to reinforce those gains.
