Lula and Bolsonaro Face Off in Tied Vote as Crowds Fill Rio and Belo Horizonte

Approximately 159 million Brazilians will cast their votes on Sunday in a presidential runoff that appears to be a dead heat. The election follows a first round on 4 October where far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45%. The two candidates remain tied in current polling, setting the stage for a decisive final contest.

The stakes of this vote are historically high for ordinary voters. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has ever managed to win the subsequent runoff. A victory for Lula would break this pattern, while a win for Bolsonaro would maintain the status quo of the last presidential election cycle.

In Rio de Janeiro, tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana beach on Saturday under strong sun. Dressed in red, the crowd moved in a procession along the 2.5-mile stretch of sand. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner with the message, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a homemade sign predicting Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, although polls suggest the margin will be much narrower.

Bolsonaro currently holds a slight edge according to most analysts. His campaign emphasizes a hardline approach to violent crime, echoing the policies of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who served from 2019 to 2022. However, Lula has gained ground recently following several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

The political tension extends beyond the ballot box for many citizens. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democrats worry that if his son wins, Jair Bolsonaro could be released or even return to a government role. Press reports indicate that several of his co-conspirators, who are currently jailed or in exile, might receive senior military and police positions under a Bolsonaro administration.

In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters gathered in Praça da Liberdade. Many wore yellow football jerseys and waved both Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais has the second-largest electorate in the country and is considered a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. Bolsonaro led the first round in this state by just under 5%.

Supporters on both sides cited security as a primary concern. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner in Belo Horizonte, argued that Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves. Conversely, security experts note that Bolsonaro’s loosening of gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has since tightened those rules. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect in Rio, carried a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts among Lula’s base about Bolsonaro’s ability to curb crime given his ties to Rio’s paramilitary militias.