October jobs: 59,000 new roles expected despite wage stagnation

U.S. employers are projected to have added 59,000 jobs in October, according to a Dow Jones survey of economists. This figure marks a sharp increase from the 29,000 positions created in September. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official data on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

Workers face a persistent gap between earnings and the cost of living. Annual wage growth is forecast at 2.9%, which trails the 3.7% inflation rate recorded in September. Since March, wages have not kept pace with rising prices, eroding household purchasing power. This economic squeeze became the top concern for voters in Tuesday's elections.

The technology sector presents a mixed picture for employment. Major tech firms are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in artificial intelligence and data centers. This spending is driving up consumer prices for electronics like laptops and Nintendo Switch 2 consoles. While these investments support the economy, employees express anxiety about long-term job security. Overall job growth in 2026 has lagged behind the gains seen from 2020 through 2024, with only 612,000 jobs added through September.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, attributes the slower growth to low labor turnover and fewer new entrants into the workforce. She notes that historically low unemployment leaves workers with fewer options when changing jobs. However, specific sectors show strength due to the AI boom. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra expects tech spending to support construction and manufacturing employment.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows manufacturing jobs increased by 9,000 in September, a cumulative rise of 72,000 since December 2025. Construction jobs grew by 11,000 in the same month, maintaining an average of 10,000 new positions per month over the past year. Despite this, financial markets reacted sharply to recent political shifts. On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6%, wiping out more than $2 trillion in market value.

Citi economist Veronica Clark warns that residential construction and parts of manufacturing may be vulnerable to tighter financial conditions. She suggests that high interest rates could soften labor demand. Additionally, productivity gains from AI might reduce the need for new hires or increase implementation costs, leading companies to hire less.

A potential positive for the upcoming report is the surge in seasonal hiring. The Indeed Hiring Lab reported that seasonal job postings started their strongest in several years. Large employers are compensating for fewer seasonal roles by increasing non-seasonal, part-time positions. Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, noted that tariffs are still working through supply chains. Retailers are relying on automation and on-demand labor pools before committing to new seasonal hires.