Texas early voting data shows unexpected Democratic leads in conservative counties
With polls closed, preliminary returns indicate Democrat James Talarico is ahead in traditionally Republican areas, raising the stakes for the U.S. Senate race and down ballot contests.
By Luana Sato ·
Polls closed in Texas at 7 p.m., with El Paso voting until 8 p.m. due to its Mountain Time zone status. As initial results began to roll in, early data indicated that Democrat James Talarico is leading in several counties that have historically favored Republican candidates. This early surge has shifted the focus of the 2026 midterm election coverage toward specific suburban and border regions where the outcome remains tight.
Talarico is showing a nearly 10 point lead in Brazos County, home to Texas A&M University, a jurisdiction typically classified as conservative. In the Rio Grande Valley, early voting returns show Talarico ahead in Nueces County. In that same county, Democrat Jon Hinojosa leads in a U.S. House race with 54 percent of the vote, while Democrat Laura Goodwin holds a 52 percent lead in another federal contest. Republican incumbents in these districts, including Rep. Cloud and Rep. Flores, trail in early counts at 31 percent and 46 percent respectively.
Statewide races are also showing Democratic advantages in early reporting. Clayton Tucker leads Nate Sheets in the Agriculture Commissioner race with 58 percent of the vote, though only 18 percent of total ballots have been counted. In the State Board of Education District 13 race, incumbent Democrat Tiffany Clark holds an 81 percent lead over Republican Carlos Garza, with the Associated Press calling the race in her favor after 67 percent of votes were tallied. In District 13, the seat covers large portions of Dallas and Tarrant counties.
In the Rio Grande Valley, Democrat Thomas Ray Garcia leads Republican Victoria Hinojosa in the State Board of Education District 2 race, 54 percent to 46 percent, with roughly 14 percent of votes counted. The seat was previously held by Republican L.J. Francis, who won narrowly in 2022 but lost in the March Republican primary. Democrats spent considerable campaign time in the Valley, seeking to capitalize on recent redistricting efforts.
The U.S. Senate race is drawing particular attention in North Texas suburbs. Early results show Talarico leading in Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties. This performance is creating pressure on down ballot races. State Rep. Caroline Harris Davila is trailing in Williamson County, and State Rep. Gary Gates is narrowly behind his opponent in Fort Bend County. Democrats currently hold 62 of the 150 seats in the Texas House and need to gain a net 14 seats to secure a majority.
Early voting turnout exceeded 40 percent of voters, setting a record for a non presidential election year in Texas. At election night events in Dallas and Austin, attendees tracked the shifting leads on large screens. In Dallas, the mood at the Ken Paxton watch party shifted as Talarico's leads in North Texas suburbs became apparent. In Austin, Talarico's headquarters maintained a festive atmosphere with live music as the night progressed.
